BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Inca Dove In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Inca Dove in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-36%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Inca Dove in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 43% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 43% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.090.000.26
20250.090.000.26
20260.090.000.26
20270.090.000.26
20280.090.000.26

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Inca Dove in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MesillaNEW-MEXICO62000
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO22023
CastolonTEXAS22004
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12013
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12021
ComstockTEXAS12019
LongfellowTEXAS11993
GirvinTEXAS12003
OzonaTEXAS12019
Sierra BlancTEXAS12003
CanutilloTEXAS12013
MarathonTEXAS12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.