BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Inca Dove In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Inca Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-81%Since 1972
11Routes In Region
43Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Inca Dove has collapsed in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.6795% range
±68.2%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.030.000.70
20260.020.000.69
20270.010.000.68
20280.000.000.67
20290.000.000.67

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Inca Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental.
SahuaritaARIZONA82006
PortalARIZONA32024
McnealARIZONA22007
Carr MtnARIZONA22010
PomereneARIZONA12015
PatagoniaARIZONA12024
CutterARIZONA12014
RedingtonARIZONA12022
AmadoARIZONA12023
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12009
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.