BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Inca Dove In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Inca Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 2005.

+143%Since 2005TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Inca Dove has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 2005.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.14–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.14–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20012029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.110.45
20260.290.120.46
20270.300.120.47
20280.300.130.48
20290.310.140.48

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Inca Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KraemerLOUISIANA42024
MayflowerLOUISIANA22022
BrousvilleLOUISIANA22024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA22013
ConcordLOUISIANA22015
River RoadLOUISIANA22022
RoselandLOUISIANA12024
KeystoneLOUISIANA12013
ShawLOUISIANA12024
RamahLOUISIANA12022
GibsonLOUISIANA12019
GonzalesLOUISIANA12011
BelairLOUISIANA12023
Port AllenLOUISIANA12024
Morgan CityLOUISIANA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.