BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Inca Dove In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Inca Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 2005.

+63%Since 2005TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Inca Dove has risen sharply in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 2005.

Inca Dove In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 153% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.10–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+153%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 153% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.10–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20012030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.260.070.43
20270.260.080.44
20280.270.090.45
20290.280.100.46
20300.280.100.46

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Inca Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KraemerLOUISIANA42024
MayflowerLOUISIANA22025
BrousvilleLOUISIANA22024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA22013
Rayville 2LOUISIANA22025
ConcordLOUISIANA22015
River RoadLOUISIANA22022
RoselandLOUISIANA12024
KeystoneLOUISIANA12013
ShawLOUISIANA12024
RamahLOUISIANA12022
GibsonLOUISIANA12019
GonzalesLOUISIANA12011
BelairLOUISIANA12023
Port AllenLOUISIANA12024
Morgan CityLOUISIANA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.