BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Inca Dove In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Inca Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-90%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Inca Dove has collapsed in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Inca Dove In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±202.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±202.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±202.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.54
20260.090.000.53
20270.090.000.53
20280.080.000.52
20290.080.000.52

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Inca Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FlorenceARIZONA61976
DatelandARIZONA42016
New RiverARIZONA32008
ArabyARIZONA32022
CoolidgeARIZONA21979
Palo VerdeARIZONA22006
Casa GrandeARIZONA22018
BrawleyCALIFORNIA22008
OatmanARIZONA12004
LagunaARIZONA12023
AjoARIZONA11979
Gila BendARIZONA12001
Red RockARIZONA12001
Cactus ForestARIZONA12024
Red Rock 2ARIZONA12023
Hope 2ARIZONA12018
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.