BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Inca Dove In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Inca Dove in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 449% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+449%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Inca Dove has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 448% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Inca Dove In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 65% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.04–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±296.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±296.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 65% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.04–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±296.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.003.2
20271.60.003.2
20281.60.003.2
20291.60.023.2
20301.60.043.3

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Inca Dove in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FanninTEXAS122025
GauseTEXAS111997
SchroederTEXAS101997
Oak Grove 2TEXAS82025
HobsonTEXAS72025
Oak GroveTEXAS71999
SeldenTEXAS42010
BurtonTEXAS42025
CreedmoreTEXAS42013
DecaturTEXAS42024
Lone OakTEXAS32014
GrafordTEXAS32016
Blue RidgeTEXAS32019
YoakumTEXAS32025
CampbelltonTEXAS22018
Arenosa CrkTEXAS22025
LockhartTEXAS22025
Peach CreekTEXAS21979
Glen RoseTEXAS22018
RhomeTEXAS22017
Thornton 2TEXAS22009
CarlosTEXAS22025
Three RiversTEXAS22025
PaigeTEXAS22023
MuldoonTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.