BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Inca Dove In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Inca Dove in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 269% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+269%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Inca Dove has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 268% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 125% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.06–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±326.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+125%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±326.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 125% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.06–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±326.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.003.2
20261.60.003.2
20271.60.023.3
20281.70.043.3
20291.70.063.3

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Inca Dove in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Three RiversTEXAS122024
GauseTEXAS111997
SchroederTEXAS101997
Oak GroveTEXAS71999
Arenosa CrkTEXAS62024
SeldenTEXAS42010
BurtonTEXAS42024
CreedmoreTEXAS42013
DecaturTEXAS42024
Lone OakTEXAS32014
GrafordTEXAS32016
Blue RidgeTEXAS32019
CampbelltonTEXAS22018
LockhartTEXAS22024
Peach CreekTEXAS21979
Glen RoseTEXAS22018
RhomeTEXAS22017
Oak Grove 2TEXAS22024
Thornton 2TEXAS22009
CarlosTEXAS22022
YoakumTEXAS22023
BriteTEXAS22024
PaigeTEXAS22023
HobsonTEXAS12024
MuldoonTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.