BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Inca Dove In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Inca Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 181% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+181%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Inca Dove has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 181% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Inca Dove In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.59–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±233.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.59–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±233.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.59–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±233.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.503.2
20261.90.523.2
20271.90.553.3
20281.90.573.3
20291.90.593.3

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Inca Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bayside 2TEXAS142001
McfaddinTEXAS72016
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA62024
MauriceLOUISIANA52024
KaplanLOUISIANA52023
Loyola BeachTEXAS42009
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA32018
WoodlawnLOUISIANA32019
Hinkles FerTEXAS32015
VanderbiltTEXAS31969
DanburyTEXAS32024
Rock IslandTEXAS32024
Goliad PrairieTEXAS32015
HackberryLOUISIANA22016
GlencoeLOUISIANA22017
RichardLOUISIANA22024
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA22019
Forked IslandLOUISIANA22018
Vinton 2LOUISIANA22024
Lag AtascosaTEXAS22024
WinnieTEXAS22009
BaysideTEXAS22003
Moon LakeTEXAS22011
EstherLOUISIANA12024
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.