BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Sharp-shinned Hawk in New Jersey has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

+62%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sharp-shinned Hawk Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sharp-shinned Hawk has risen sharply in New Jersey: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±199.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±199.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±199.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.100.000.20
20240.100.000.20
20250.100.000.21
20260.100.000.21
20270.100.000.21

Sharp-shinned Hawk Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Albion520062006
Pedricktown219991999
Croton 2220192019
Six Points120001997
Sandbrook120072007
Winslow120041990
Bloomsbury119921986
High Point120172001
Dover120222000
Pottersville120011997
Ramseysburg120112011
Cranbury120171996
Roosevelt119951995
Friendship119931993

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.