BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Sharp-shinned Hawk in Utah has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

-84%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sharp-shinned Hawk Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sharp-shinned Hawk has collapsed in Utah: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±187.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±187.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±187.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.000.000.14
20240.000.000.14
20250.000.000.14
20260.000.000.14
20270.000.000.14

Sharp-shinned Hawk Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beck219801980
Vernal220112011
Lost Cr. Res120121995
Grizzly Rdge119961992
E. Bear Lake120192009
Oak City119801980
Goshen120032003
Woodruff120222003
Crawford Mts120052005
Navajo Lake120101968
Boulder120021994
Randolph120101999
Vernon120002000
Soapstone120042004
Moon Lake119951995
M Warner Res119961996
Wellington 2120042004
Fayette119941994
Skyline Driv119881988
Gooseberry120162003
Shivwitz119921992
Dixie Nf119961995
Hatch120182018
Goose Creek Mtn.120071998
Grantsville120182018

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.