BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Sharp-shinned Hawk in California has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-57%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sharp-shinned Hawk Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sharp-shinned Hawk in California. See the full index history below.

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.020.000.04
20240.020.000.04
20250.020.000.04
20260.020.000.04
20270.020.000.04

Sharp-shinned Hawk Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Forest Hill220012001
Horse Creek119721972
Mt Baldy119821975
Nubieber120062006
Crescent Cty120001985
Honeydew120081969
Holmes120132013
Red Bluff119871987
Lake Cachuma119881988
Eagle Lake120032003
Jacumba119741974
Hullville120002000
Creston120152009
Westville120212019
Mt Pinos 2120132013
Rumsey119911970
Whiskeytown120032003
Hughson119791979
Hackamore120072007
Gold Hill119881981
Tuolumne Grove120141978
Longvale120031997
Tehama120121978
Onyx120151969
Meadow Valley120162016

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.