BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Sharp-shinned Hawk in Pennsylvania has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-48%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sharp-shinned Hawk Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sharp-shinned Hawk in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±164.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±164.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±164.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.14
20260.070.000.14
20270.070.000.14
20280.070.000.14
20290.070.000.14

Sharp-shinned Hawk Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harmonsburg219681966
Waller220032001
Middletown220122012
Chatham220032003
Tussey Mtn.219971997
Slippery Rk119851985
Espyville120222000
Clover120181990
Ferris Crnrs120152008
Whig Hill120052005
Teepleville119891966
Sigel120211991
Lynch120211968
N Washington120131976
N Pine Grove120232023
Odin120112000
Betula119891989
Russell City120221984
Ridgway120102007
Rasselas120161976
Roulette120081975
Ramsey120071996
Arnot120032003
Logue120151976
Little Marsh120041999

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.