BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Sharp-shinned Hawk in New York has surged: up 562% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+562%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sharp-shinned Hawk Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sharp-shinned Hawk has surged in New York: up 562% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in New York is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.04–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in New York is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.04–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.040.14
20260.090.040.14
20270.090.040.14
20280.090.040.15
20290.090.040.15

Sharp-shinned Hawk Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Vestal Ctr319991990
Westbrookvle220181983
Branchport220141995
Gainesville220231980
Warwick 2219921988
Manorville120042004
Hauppauge119981998
Bedford119861986
Rhinebeck120052005
Highland119911986
W Shokan119961996
Mt Hope119911991
Austerlitz120232023
Catskills120151993
Ghent120211992
Ballston Lk119941994
Medusa120041981
Meridale120172016
Duanesburg120141976
S Berne120071981
Platte Cove119991979
Laurens120171975
Whitney Pt119951994
Coventryvile120131997
Mcdonough120072007

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.