BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

Sharp-shinned Hawk in Vermont has increased: up 48% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+48%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sharp-shinned Hawk Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sharp-shinned Hawk in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Vermont is projected to fall about 41% by 2027 — from 0.16 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.02–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Vermont is projected to fall about 41% by 2027 — from 0.16 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.02–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.090.020.17
20240.090.020.17
20250.090.020.17
20260.090.020.17
20270.090.020.17

Sharp-shinned Hawk Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hardwick219941975
North Pownal120112003
Landgrove119991986
S Reading120121971
Post Mills120221975
Shaftsbury119991998
S Wallingfrd120022002
W Rutland120221994
Northfld Fls119951995
Middlesex119921992
East Calais119831983
Greensboro119951995
Fletcher120001990
Waterville119741974
Hinesburg119881966
Newbury 2120222013
Bristol120152015

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.