BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Sharp-shinned Hawk in Kansas has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-63%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sharp-shinned Hawk Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sharp-shinned Hawk has fallen sharply in Kansas: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±141.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.030.000.09
20240.030.000.09
20250.030.000.09
20260.030.000.09
20270.030.000.09

Sharp-shinned Hawk Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Olathe220011968
Hays220082007
St John119771977
Coats120001997
Ashland120042001
Barclay120222001
Wreford120091974
Buckeye120052005
Albert120192019
Kanopolis119831969
Grantville120032002
Seneca120002000
Covert119861974
Jewell119921992
Phillipsburg119761976
Logan119761976
Hopewell120092009
Hodges120082003
Le Loup120012001
Goessel120072007
Longton120122001

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.