BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Sharp-shinned Hawk in Montana has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-74%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sharp-shinned Hawk Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sharp-shinned Hawk has fallen sharply in Montana: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.010.000.07
20250.010.000.06
20260.010.000.06
20270.010.000.06
20280.010.000.06

Sharp-shinned Hawk Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Libby Dam219891985
Kalispell219861978
Pryor Mtn.220162016
Highwood219731968
Woodman220171987
Lima220152010
Noxon220212019
St Mary119921992
Flatwillow 2120142014
Logan Pass120191988
Cleveland120132013
Harlem119991999
Glen120122012
Cramer Creek119971997
Greenough119981998
Elevation Mt119951995
St Regis120221991
Arlee119791979
Bull Mtn.120011995
Brusett119881988
Clinton120081982
Elliston119941994
Boulder120231969
Ingomar120032003
Sula120231978

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.