BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Sharp-shinned Hawk in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-74%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sharp-shinned Hawk Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sharp-shinned Hawk has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.09
20260.010.000.09
20270.010.000.09
20280.010.000.09
20290.010.000.09

Sharp-shinned Hawk Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St Stephen220012001
Brainerd219981997
Money Creek119911991
Sherburne Nr120122012
Tamarac Nwr120091991
Big Stone120042004
Minnetonka120082008
Courtland119811981
Cass Lake119921990
Maynard119671967
Nebish119921988
Appleton120122012
Gluek119701970
Cromwell120191990
Wigwam Bay120232023
Mille Lacs119711968
Backus120011981
Pine River120241968
Edwards119961982
Evergreen119921992
Tenney120132013
Hovland119881977
Lockport119991980
Hart Lake120121971
Floodwood120121988

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.