BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Sharp-shinned Hawk in North Carolina has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-79%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sharp-shinned Hawk Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sharp-shinned Hawk has collapsed in North Carolina: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.05
20260.010.000.05
20270.010.000.04
20280.000.000.04
20290.000.000.04

Sharp-shinned Hawk Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Youngsville220171987
Cokesbury219961996
Merrimon119701970
Saxapahaw119761976
Mooresville119961980
Brevard119781978
Craven Gap119721972
Arcola119741974
Copeland120161970
Call120241968
Sturgills120132013
Siloam120192019
Osmond120112007
Pinelog120012001
Dudley120072007
Congleton120182018
Lake Surf120192019
Bethel120022002
Wilgrove120072007
Sheffield119911991
Murphy120031996
Durham120071993
Todd120212001
Hertford120072007
Bullock119971997

Sharp-shinned Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.