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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Texas

All statesShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Texas has surged: up 308% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+308%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-necked Stilt Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-necked Stilt has surged in Texas: up 308% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-necked Stilt Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Texas is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.62–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.62–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Texas is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.62–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.561.7
20261.10.571.7
20271.10.591.7
20281.20.601.7
20291.20.621.7

Black-necked Stilt Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Winnie2320241967
Panhandle2120162016
Katy1720241969
Chinquapin1620241995
Arenosa Crk1420021993
Quitman Canyon 21320192010
Bayside 21220041997
Raymondville1020241969
Hackberry1020122012
Hinkles Fer920231970
Campbellton920182006
Indianola820241967
Saragosa820222022
Encinal 2820152015
Pantex820232009
Claytonville720221995
Friona720222001
Danbury620241967
Stowell520221971
Bayside520101994
Tenmile520232015
Dalhart520241996
Kingsville420191970
Millett 2420212021
Presidio420112001

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoiskansaslouisianamarylandmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.