BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Texas

All statesShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Texas has surged: up 270% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+270%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-necked Stilt Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-necked Stilt has surged in Texas: up 270% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-necked Stilt Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Texas is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 0.75 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.60–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Texas is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 0.75 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.60–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.551.7
20271.10.561.7
20281.10.571.7
20291.10.591.7
20301.20.601.7

Black-necked Stilt Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Winnie3820251967
L. Atascosa Nwr3420251998
Arenosa Crk1420021993
Quitman Canyon 21320192010
Bayside 21220041997
Hackberry1020122012
Hinkles Fer920231970
Campbellton920182006
Indianola820241967
Saragosa820222022
Encinal 2820152015
Pantex820232009
Claytonville720221995
Friona720222001
Danbury620241967
Raymondville620251969
Bayside520101994
Bayside 3520252005
Lamesa520251976
Tenmile520232015
Dalhart520251996
Kingsville420191970
Millett 2420212021
Presidio420112001
Slaughter420062006

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.