BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Washington

All statesShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Washington has surged: up 301% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

+301%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-necked Stilt Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-necked Stilt has surged in Washington: up 301% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

Black-necked Stilt Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Washington is projected to fall about 74% by 2026 — from 0.58 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-74%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Washington is projected to fall about 74% by 2026 — from 0.58 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.140.000.35
20230.140.000.35
20240.140.000.36
20250.140.000.36
20260.150.000.36

Black-necked Stilt Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Columbia Nwr4020211992
Othello219911987
Moses Lake220082000
Mesa220051994
Potholes220192007
Brewster120181987
Harrington119841984
Reardan120092009
Wapato119901990

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoiskansaslouisianamarylandmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.