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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Louisiana has surged: up 264% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+264%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-necked Stilt Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-necked Stilt has surged in Louisiana: up 264% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-necked Stilt Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.5 (95% range 0.23–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.5 (95% range 0.23–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.40.144.8
20262.50.164.8
20272.50.194.8
20282.50.214.8
20292.50.234.8

Black-necked Stilt Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Forked Island 24520112010
Creole3219871967
Ltl Chenier2620241986
Kaplan2320231998
Esther2220241988
Forked Island2020242008
Maurice1920241988
Woodlawn1720192008
Sabine Nwr1320081989
Ltl Chenier 21120112010
Richard820241998
Keystone720031991
Hackberry620161967
Ramah620242008
Belair620162002
Rayville 2620232015
Glencoe520181988
Grand Isle520182010
Mayflower420051989
Berwick419991999
Ville Platte420191988
River Road320081992
Atchafalaya320182018
Port Allen320242003
Tensas Nwr220082008

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoiskansasmarylandmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.