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Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Utah

All statesShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Utah has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

-18%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-necked Stilt Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-necked Stilt in Utah. See the full index history below.

Black-necked Stilt Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Utah is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±267.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±267.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Utah is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±267.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.007.6
20260.580.007.5
20270.520.007.5
20280.470.007.4
20290.410.007.4

Black-necked Stilt Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear River9120231992
Goshen1020241998
Lynn820121996
Snowville420241999
Neponset Res220131995
Gold Hill220211993
Oak City220001981
Jensen220232023
Delta219971997
Callao220241992
Leamington119951993
Promontory120221970
Randolph120221992
Salt Springs120211989
Timpie Spg120031988
Stock Res119951995
Main Canyon120142014
Wellington 2120092003

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoiskansaslouisianamarylandmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexaswashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.