BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Arkansas has surged: up 710% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+710%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-necked Stilt Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-necked Stilt has surged in Arkansas: up 710% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

Black-necked Stilt Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Arkansas is projected to rise about 321% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.48–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+321%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.48–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±100.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Arkansas is projected to rise about 321% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.48–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19892029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.342.1
20261.20.372.1
20271.30.412.1
20281.30.452.2
20291.40.482.2

Black-necked Stilt Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harrisburg820191993
Dell720242010
Kelso620102010
Augusta519941994
South Bend420101997
Maynard420222022
Eudora220091989
Hickory Ridge220222016
Ulm220182004
Lafe120222017
Gillett120242016
Wilson120242010

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoiskansaslouisianamarylandmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.