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Species · Delaware · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Delaware

All statesShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Delaware has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1998.

+9%Since 1998TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-necked Stilt Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-necked Stilt in Delaware. See the full index history below.

Black-necked Stilt Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Delaware is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Delaware is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19962029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.002.8
20261.00.002.8
20271.00.002.8
20281.10.002.8
20291.10.002.8

Black-necked Stilt Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harrington420242004
Blackbird120241996
Georgetown120222022

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoiskansaslouisianamarylandmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.