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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Arizona

All statesShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Arizona has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+6%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-necked Stilt Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-necked Stilt in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Black-necked Stilt Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Arizona is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Arizona is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.36
20260.150.000.36
20270.150.000.36
20280.150.000.36
20290.150.000.36

Black-necked Stilt Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Palo Verde 2620242014
Vicksburg619891988
Cibola Lake220122012
Palo Verde220132002
Hope 2220142014
Dateland220132006
Cactus Forest220241997
Araby120231992
Laguna120221974
Ajo120072000
Coolidge119791979

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoiskansaslouisianamarylandmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.