BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Oregon

All statesShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Oregon has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-63%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-necked Stilt Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-necked Stilt has fallen sharply in Oregon: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Black-necked Stilt Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Oregon is projected to rise about 74% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±513.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+74%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±513.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Oregon is projected to rise about 74% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±513.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.000.33
20270.120.000.33
20280.120.000.34
20290.120.000.34
20300.120.000.34

Black-necked Stilt Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Adair620192008
Merrill320221994
Malheur Nwr319891986
Blizzard Gap320251993
Blitzen 2220002000
Warner Vally220181994
Catlow Rim220252015
Harney Lake220241993
Chinchalo220192015
Princeton219851973
Trout Creek220251998
Bly 2120192019
Umatilla120231991
Modoc Point120081999
Fish Lake120211989

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.