BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Colorado

All statesShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Colorado has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1998.

-9%Since 1998TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-necked Stilt Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-necked Stilt in Colorado. See the full index history below.

Black-necked Stilt Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.020.000.04
20250.020.000.04
20260.020.000.04
20270.020.000.04
20280.020.000.04

Black-necked Stilt Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wildhorse L619991998
Hudson320182015
Sheridan Lak220142014
Alamosa220221997
Karval120172014
Guffey119971997
Moffat120232023
Haswell119921992
Neegrande119971997

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoiskansaslouisianamarylandmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.