BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in New Mexico has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

+60%Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-necked Stilt Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-necked Stilt has risen sharply in New Mexico: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

Black-necked Stilt Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in New Mexico is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in New Mexico is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.000.27
20270.100.000.27
20280.100.000.27
20290.100.000.27
20300.110.000.27

Black-necked Stilt Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Columbus1220252004
San Antonio319741974
Crownpoint219951995
Mesilla220002000
Maxwell220092009
Clovis120242018
Laborcita120001995
Hobbs120172009

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.