BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in New Mexico has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

-5%Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-necked Stilt Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-necked Stilt in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Black-necked Stilt Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in New Mexico is projected to fall about 72% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in New Mexico is projected to fall about 72% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.23
20260.080.000.23
20270.080.000.23
20280.080.000.23
20290.080.000.23

Black-necked Stilt Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Columbus1220242004
San Antonio319741974
Crownpoint219951995
Mesilla220002000
Maxwell220092009
Clovis120242018
Laborcita120001995
Hobbs120172009

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoiskansaslouisianamarylandmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanorth-carolinaoklahomaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.