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Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Nevada

All statesShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Nevada has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-25%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-necked Stilt Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-necked Stilt in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Black-necked Stilt Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Nevada is projected to rise about 116% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1300%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+116%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1300%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Nevada is projected to rise about 116% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1300%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.004.2
20271.00.004.2
20281.00.004.2
20291.00.004.2
20301.00.004.2

Black-necked Stilt Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fallon7120181994
Cortez1020252025
Mizpah1020092009
Hiko1019701970
Ash Meadows320232023
Bald Mtn.220192018
Frenchman219771977
Illipah220192019
Mill City220162016
Silver Peak219681968
Sand Pass120071987
Virgin Creek120181997
Eureka119981990
Dobbin Creek120171972

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourimontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.