BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Nevada

All statesShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Nevada has surged: up 141% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+141%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-necked Stilt Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-necked Stilt has surged in Nevada: up 141% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Black-necked Stilt Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Nevada is projected to rise about 568% by 2028 — from 0.17 in 2023 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1903.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+568%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1903.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Nevada is projected to rise about 568% by 2028 — from 0.17 in 2023 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1903.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20241.10.004.3
20251.10.004.3
20261.10.004.3
20271.10.004.3
20281.10.004.3

Black-necked Stilt Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fallon7120181994
Mizpah1020092009
Hiko1019701970
Ash Meadows320232023
Bald Mtn.220192018
Frenchman219771977
Illipah220192019
Mill City220162016
Silver Peak219681968
Sand Pass120071987
Virgin Creek120181997
Eureka119981990
Dobbin Creek120171972

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoiskansaslouisianamarylandmississippimissourimontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.