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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Florida

All statesShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Florida has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-87%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-necked Stilt Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-necked Stilt has collapsed in Florida: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-necked Stilt Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Florida is projected to rise about 136% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±427.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+136%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±427.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Florida is projected to rise about 136% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±427.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.460.001.4
20260.460.001.4
20270.460.001.4
20280.460.001.4
20290.460.001.4

Black-necked Stilt Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawano 212520112004
Crewsville3920052005
Merritt Island 21920142014
Weaver Stn1520191991
Shawano720021987
Broward519731966
Andytown519981976
Arbuckle520151995
Ridge Harbor420242000
Sunniland Gr420191966
Salvista419731967
Myakka Head319971997
Ft Lonesome320121999
Tamiami319711971
Boca Raton319681968
Davie320161988
Kendall319911987
Clewiston320232015
Lake Buffum220141995
Punta Gorda219911991
Flamingo220192017
Croom220031998
Webb220132013
Corbett220121995
Polk City220242005

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoiskansaslouisianamarylandmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.