BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Idaho

All statesShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Idaho has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

-34%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-necked Stilt Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-necked Stilt in Idaho. See the full index history below.

Black-necked Stilt Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Idaho is projected to fall about 70% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-70%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Idaho is projected to fall about 70% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.10
20260.040.000.10
20270.040.000.10
20280.040.000.10
20290.040.000.10

Black-necked Stilt Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Acequia419911979
Cedar Hill320242010
Preston320072007
Blacks Creek220171996
Crane Creek220122012
Springfield219881988
Magic Mtn120222022

Black-necked Stilt Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaillinoiskansaslouisianamarylandmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.