BirdAnalyst
Guild · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Shorebirds In Alaska

All statesAlaska

24 species in this guild. As a group they are +12%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1975.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for shorebirds in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Alaska is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Alaska is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.790.001.8
20260.780.001.7
20270.770.001.7
20280.760.001.7
20290.740.001.7

Member Species In Alaska

Shorebirds species in Alaska.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Rock SandpiperScolopacidae-77%
Black OystercatcherHaematopodidae-74%
Short-billed DowitcherScolopacidae-58%
Ruddy TurnstoneScolopacidae-58%
Hudsonian GodwitScolopacidae-53%
Lesser YellowlegsScolopacidae-48%
Bar-tailed GodwitScolopacidae-45%
Bristle-thighed CurlewScolopacidae-41%
Wandering TattlerScolopacidae-38%
Red-necked PhalaropeScolopacidae-30%
Semipalmated PloverCharadriidae-20%
Pacific Golden-PloverCharadriidae-19%
American Golden-PloverCharadriidae-17%
Black TurnstoneScolopacidae+6%
Western SandpiperScolopacidae+31%
Greater YellowlegsScolopacidae+32%
WhimbrelScolopacidae+66%
Solitary SandpiperScolopacidae+68%
Spotted SandpiperScolopacidae+100%
Wilson's SnipeScolopacidae+102%
KilldeerCharadriidae+260%
Least SandpiperScolopacidae+278%
Semipalmated SandpiperScolopacidae+291%
DunlinScolopacidae12×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.