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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Sandpiper Population Trend in Alaska

All statesShorebirds

Spotted Sandpiper in Alaska has surged: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+100%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Spotted Sandpiper Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Sandpiper has surged in Alaska: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Spotted Sandpiper Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in Alaska is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.77–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.77–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in Alaska is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.77–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.673.5
20262.10.693.5
20272.10.723.6
20282.20.743.6
20292.20.773.6

Spotted Sandpiper Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Spotted Sandpiper in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kanuti Canyn3720241993
Mud River2120241993
Anvik River1820241998
Kanektok Riv1220051995
Hather Creek1020241993
Nicholai Sl920241993
Unalakleet River920241996
Bear Creek819911986
Goodnews Bay620051999
Pinoche Tral (Short)619841984
Koyukuk Riv.520011993
Salmon Lake520181993
Togiak River520052000
Tupuknuk519951995
Paxson Lake419951992
Porcupine R.420021993
Circle320241992
Ketchikan320162015
Haines320231972
Chena Hot Spring 2320242001
Galena (Short)320231991
Caribou Mtn.320182003
Mcgrath320221999
Kanuti Lake320242006
Slana220221995

Spotted Sandpiper Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.