BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Sandpiper Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesShorebirds

Spotted Sandpiper in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-60%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Spotted Sandpiper Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Sandpiper has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Spotted Sandpiper Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in Minnesota is projected to fall about 88% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-88%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in Minnesota is projected to fall about 88% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.22
20260.020.000.22
20270.010.000.21
20280.010.000.21
20290.010.000.21

Spotted Sandpiper Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Spotted Sandpiper in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maynard1219711971
Tracy620172017
Chatfield 2620172017
Hartland320071980
Ash Creek320221975
Knapp320011969
Mille Lacs319671967
Waskish319811978
Osseo219831968
Backus219741974
Floodwood219901970
Beltrami220041976
Lake Bronson220032003
Le Center220232023
Brook Park220051998
New London220122012
Greenbush220222008
Money Creek120061967
Chatfield119811973
Sherburne Nr120241990
Chandler120232017
Millville119711971
Lakeville120131968
Minnetonka120241976
Arlington120211968

Spotted Sandpiper Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.