BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Sandpiper Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesShorebirds

Spotted Sandpiper in North Dakota has surged: up 380% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+380%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Spotted Sandpiper Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Sandpiper has surged in North Dakota: up 380% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Spotted Sandpiper Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in North Dakota is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.30–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.65Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.30–0.9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in North Dakota is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.30–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.600.250.95
20260.610.270.96
20270.630.280.97
20280.640.290.98
20290.650.300.99

Spotted Sandpiper Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Spotted Sandpiper in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Edgeley820242009
Buchanan620241974
Bentley620161988
Forman520241971
Niles420231994
Nash319851981
Emerado220241984
Bowesmont219731969
Lakota220091971
Carpio220231971
Abercrombie220121969
Wild Rose220231998
Sheyenne Lk220241980
Turtle Mtns220141993
Lakota 2220232010
Abercrombie 2220142014
Walcott120191979
Lake George120052005
Danzig120082008
Kempton120151967
Cooperstown120241971
Wimbledon120181981
Horsehead Lk120241998
Webster120222008
Rolla120221984

Spotted Sandpiper Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.