BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Sandpiper Population Trend in California

All statesShorebirds

Spotted Sandpiper in California has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-50%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Spotted Sandpiper Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Sandpiper has fallen sharply in California: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Spotted Sandpiper Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in California is projected to rise about 109% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.04–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±230.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+109%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±230.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in California is projected to rise about 109% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.04–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±230.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.050.55
20260.300.050.55
20270.300.040.55
20280.290.040.55
20290.290.040.54

Spotted Sandpiper Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Spotted Sandpiper in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whiskeytown920072002
Woodfords820241973
Horse Creek620191970
Imperial Dam519731973
Carrville419701970
Longvale420231972
Orleans420121972
Honeydew320171968
Dorris320191977
Iron Gate320191988
Goumaz320111997
Holmes220231968
Fish Rock220141975
Foster Park219771977
Lenwood219751975
Ravendale220021973
Shasta Lake220021977
Clear Lk Res220171975
Coyote220151973
Bodega Bay219881978
Yreka220031978
Bartle219951982
Chaos Crater220122003
Pescadero220122012
Hackamore220102000

Spotted Sandpiper Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.