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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bar-tailed Godwit Population Trend in Alaska

All statesShorebirds

Bar-tailed Godwit in Alaska has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

-45%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bar-tailed Godwit Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bar-tailed Godwit in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Bar-tailed Godwit Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Bar-tailed Godwit in Alaska is projected to fall about 48% by 2028 — from 0.11 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bar-tailed Godwit in Alaska is projected to fall about 48% by 2028 — from 0.11 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.060.000.27
20250.060.000.26
20260.060.000.26
20270.060.000.26
20280.060.000.26

Bar-tailed Godwit Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Bar-tailed Godwit in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nome520231994
Teller320121993
Utqiagvik220232023
Cape Nome120191993
Kotzebue (Short)119941994
Council119981996
Red Dog119981995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.