BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bar-tailed Godwit

ScolopacidaeShorebirdsLimosa lapponica

Bar-tailed Godwit has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

-46%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Bar-tailed Godwit

The Bar-tailed Godwit (Limosa lapponica) is a North American member of the Sandpipers & Allies (Scolopacidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the shorebirds.

Size
5–26 in long (13–66 cm) — a probing shorebird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Shorelines, mudflats, beaches, flooded fields and wet meadows.
Diet
Invertebrates probed or picked from mud, sand and shallow water.
Range
Recorded on 7 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 1 state, most concentrated in the BCR 2.
Family
Scolopacidae · Shorebirds

Notable Bar-tailed Godwit TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bar-tailed Godwit. See the full index history below.

Bar-tailed Godwit Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bar-tailed Godwit is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bar-tailed Godwit is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.01
20250.000.000.01
20260.000.000.01
20270.000.000.01
20280.000.000.01

Where the Bar-tailed Godwit Is Detected

BBS routes recording Bar-tailed Godwit, sized by most recent count.

Bar-tailed Godwit Population Trend by State

Bar-tailed Godwit population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska-45%19957

Bar-tailed Godwit Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Bar-tailed Godwit population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2-19%19955

Bar-tailed Godwit Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 46% since 1995. Many shorebirds have declined steeply, reflecting pressure on the coastal and wetland stopovers they depend on.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.