BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Golden-Plover Population Trend in Alaska

All statesShorebirds

American Golden-Plover in Alaska has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-17%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Golden-Plover Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Golden-Plover in Alaska. See the full index history below.

American Golden-Plover Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, American Golden-Plover in Alaska is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±124%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Golden-Plover in Alaska is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.000.52
20260.180.000.51
20270.170.000.51
20280.170.000.51
20290.160.000.50

American Golden-Plover Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording American Golden-Plover in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Utqiagvik1920232021
Galbraith L.1020241993
Kotzebue520242014
Paxson Lake219911991
Chistochina220012001
Monahan220111983
Council220231993
Tangle Lakes219871987
Nome220231993
Teller220171994
Red Dog220242022
King Salmon219981997
Nabesna Road119971997
Maclaren120181982
Toklat120121982
Cape Nome120111993
Caribou Mtn.119951995
Happy Valley120231993
Salmon Lake120241993
Sheep Mtn120042004
Kugarak (Short)119871987
Goodnews Bay120022002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.