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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Short-billed Dowitcher Population Trend in Alaska

All statesShorebirds

Short-billed Dowitcher in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-58%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Short-billed Dowitcher Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Short-billed Dowitcher has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Short-billed Dowitcher Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Short-billed Dowitcher in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±184.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±184.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Short-billed Dowitcher in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±184.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.22
20260.050.000.22
20270.050.000.22
20280.040.000.22
20290.040.000.21

Short-billed Dowitcher Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Short-billed Dowitcher in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Copper River519971993
Cordova419971983
Gweek River420021996
Cold Bay220241993
Harlequin L.220111998
Kalifonsky220232013
King Salmon120241993
Chiniak120222006
Kodiak 2120001985
St. Mary'S119931993
Sheep Mtn119831983
Goodnews Bay120052005
Petersville120031986
Yakutat120111993
Kodiak119841984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.