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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Sandpiper Population Trend in Alaska

All statesShorebirds

Rock Sandpiper in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-69%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Sandpiper Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Sandpiper has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Rock Sandpiper Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Rock Sandpiper in Alaska is projected to fall about 97% by 2030 — from 0.97 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±201.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-97%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±201.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Sandpiper in Alaska is projected to fall about 97% by 2030 — from 0.97 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±201.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.250.002.0
20270.200.001.9
20280.140.001.9
20290.080.001.8
20300.030.001.7

Rock Sandpiper Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Rock Sandpiper in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cold Bay (Short)7819921984
Cold Bay5620251993
Adak220011986

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.