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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Sandpiper Population Trend in Alaska

All statesShorebirds

Western Sandpiper in Alaska has increased: up 31% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+31%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Sandpiper Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Sandpiper in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Western Sandpiper Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Western Sandpiper in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.1 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±182.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±182.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Sandpiper in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.1 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±182.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.80.0014
20263.80.0014
20273.90.0014
20284.00.0014
20294.10.0014

Western Sandpiper Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Western Sandpiper in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cold Bay43020221997
Homer1919821982
Kotzebue (Short)1719941994
Nome1220231993
Utqiagvik1020232021
Cape Nome920151993
King Salmon220012001
Teller220171993
Kanektok Riv220052000
Kotzebue220242005
Salmon Lake119971993
St. Mary'S120001993
Gweek River119981996
Council120231994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.