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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pacific Golden-Plover Population Trend in Alaska

All statesShorebirds

Pacific Golden-Plover in Alaska has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

-3%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pacific Golden-Plover Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pacific Golden-Plover in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Pacific Golden-Plover Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Pacific Golden-Plover in Alaska is projected to fall about 65% by 2030 — from 0.28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-65%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pacific Golden-Plover in Alaska is projected to fall about 65% by 2030 — from 0.28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.31
20270.110.000.31
20280.100.000.30
20290.100.000.30
20300.100.000.30

Pacific Golden-Plover Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Pacific Golden-Plover in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nome920231995
Red Dog820252023
St. Mary'S720141993
Teller520241993
Utqiagvik420232021
Kotzebue420252004
King Salmon320252001
Salmon Lake319971995
Cape Nome320192003
Gweek River220021995
Council120101994
Goodnews Bay120052004
Cold Bay120252022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.