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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pacific Golden-Plover Population Trend in Alaska

All statesShorebirds

Pacific Golden-Plover in Alaska has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

-19%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pacific Golden-Plover Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pacific Golden-Plover in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Pacific Golden-Plover Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Pacific Golden-Plover in Alaska is projected to fall about 65% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pacific Golden-Plover in Alaska is projected to fall about 65% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.29
20260.090.000.28
20270.080.000.28
20280.080.000.27
20290.070.000.27

Pacific Golden-Plover Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Pacific Golden-Plover in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nome920231995
St. Mary'S720141993
Teller520241993
Utqiagvik420232021
Kotzebue420242004
Salmon Lake319971995
Cape Nome320192003
Cold Bay320242022
Gweek River220021995
King Salmon120242001
Council120101994
Red Dog120242023
Goodnews Bay120052004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.