BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Whimbrel Population Trend in Alaska

All statesShorebirds

Whimbrel in Alaska has surged: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+97%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Whimbrel Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Whimbrel has surged in Alaska: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Whimbrel Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Whimbrel in Alaska is projected to fall about 69% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-69%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Whimbrel in Alaska is projected to fall about 69% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.210.000.74
20270.200.000.73
20280.200.000.72
20290.190.000.72
20300.180.000.71

Whimbrel Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Whimbrel in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kugarak (Short)1619871986
Kotzebue (Short)1619941986
Red Dog1520251995
Savage920251994
Kotzebue720252001
Selawik (Short)719871986
Paxson Lake419961991
Cape Nome320241993
Nome320231993
St. Mary'S320141993
Homer219821982
Galbraith L.220241998
Teller220101997
Gweek River220021997
Maclaren120251992
Monahan120171991
Cantwell120182017
Toklat120241982
Caribou Mtn.120151995
Council120121996
Donelly Dome120122000
Happy Valley120221998
Kobuk River (Short)119911991
Sheep Mtn120112000
King Salmon120251993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.