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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Least Sandpiper Population Trend in Alaska

All statesShorebirds

Least Sandpiper in Alaska has surged: up 331% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+331%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Sandpiper Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Sandpiper has surged in Alaska: up 331% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Least Sandpiper Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Least Sandpiper in Alaska is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Sandpiper in Alaska is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.600.001.3
20270.610.001.3
20280.610.001.3
20290.620.001.3
20300.630.001.3

Least Sandpiper Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Least Sandpiper in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cold Bay4620251993
Utqiagvik920232021
Anvik River720221998
Happy Valley520252015
Monahan420161991
Togiak River420041994
Hather Creek320242005
Kanuti Canyn319951995
Ft. Richrdsn320222022
Cordova320191996
King Salmon320251994
Chiniak220231985
Paxson Lake219971993
Cantwell220132002
Coldfoot220182015
Council220062006
Galbraith L.220252019
Nicholai Sl220252025
Kalifonsky219821982
Kodiak219841983
Ruby220252025
St. Mary'S220111993
Kobuk River (Short)219921992
Gweek River220021994
Tupuknuk219951995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.