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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Sandpiper Population Trend in Alaska

All statesShorebirds

Least Sandpiper in Alaska has surged: up 278% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+278%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Sandpiper Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Sandpiper has surged in Alaska: up 278% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Least Sandpiper Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Least Sandpiper in Alaska is projected to fall about 74% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-74%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Sandpiper in Alaska is projected to fall about 74% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.560.001.3
20260.560.001.3
20270.570.001.3
20280.570.001.3
20290.580.001.3

Least Sandpiper Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Least Sandpiper in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cold Bay12320241993
Utqiagvik920232021
Happy Valley820242015
Galbraith L.720242019
Anvik River720221998
King Salmon520241994
Monahan420161991
Togiak River420041994
Hather Creek320242005
Kanuti Canyn319951995
Ft. Richrdsn320222022
Cordova320191996
Chiniak220231985
Paxson Lake219971993
Cantwell220132002
Coldfoot220182015
Council220062006
Kalifonsky219821982
Kodiak219841983
St. Mary'S220111993
Kobuk River (Short)219921992
Gweek River220021994
Tupuknuk219951995
Copper River220031996
Maclaren120231982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.