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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Semipalmated Plover Population Trend in Alaska

All statesShorebirds

Semipalmated Plover in Alaska has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-20%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Semipalmated Plover Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Semipalmated Plover in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Semipalmated Plover Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Semipalmated Plover in Alaska is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Semipalmated Plover in Alaska is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.250.000.67
20260.240.000.66
20270.230.000.65
20280.220.000.64
20290.210.000.63

Semipalmated Plover Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Semipalmated Plover in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cold Bay1520241993
Kanektok Riv1320051995
Council820241993
Paxson Lake719971991
Homer619821982
Cold Bay (Short)619921984
Nome520231993
Togiak River520051999
Kotzebue520242009
Goodnews Bay520051999
Lake Louise420101993
Chistochina319951995
Monahan320101983
Happy Valley320241993
St. Mary'S320002000
Birch Lake220171993
Cape Nome220232007
Galbraith L.220072007
Hather Creek219961994
Tangle Lakes219871987
Mcgrath219991999
Koyukuk Riv.220011993
Salmon Lake220231993
Kobuk River (Short)219911991
Elmendorf (Short)219841984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.