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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Semipalmated Sandpiper Population Trend in Alaska

All statesShorebirds

Semipalmated Sandpiper in Alaska has surged: up 227% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+227%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Semipalmated Sandpiper Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Semipalmated Sandpiper has surged in Alaska: up 227% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

Semipalmated Sandpiper Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Semipalmated Sandpiper in Alaska is projected to rise about 448% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.14–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+448%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Semipalmated Sandpiper in Alaska is projected to rise about 448% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.14–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.042.0
20271.10.072.1
20281.10.092.1
20291.10.122.1
20301.10.142.1

Semipalmated Sandpiper Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Semipalmated Sandpiper in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Utqiagvik10620232021
Cape Nome2620241993
Salmon Lake1820242015
Kotzebue (Short)1619861986
Council1520241993
Kotzebue1220252001
Teller1120242003
Happy Valley320131993
Nome220122009
Maclaren119971997
Coldfoot120172017
Galbraith L.120102009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.