BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-necked Phalarope Population Trend in Alaska

All statesShorebirds

Red-necked Phalarope in Alaska has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-50%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-necked Phalarope Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-necked Phalarope in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Red-necked Phalarope Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Red-necked Phalarope in Alaska is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 0.71 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±100.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-necked Phalarope in Alaska is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 0.71 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.340.001.4
20270.320.001.4
20280.310.001.4
20290.300.001.4
20300.290.001.4

Red-necked Phalarope Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Red-necked Phalarope in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kotzebue (Short)12219941986
Utqiagvik6220232021
Red Dog2520252022
King Salmon1520231995
Tangle Lakes1119871987
Kotzebue1120252001
Paxson Lake719971991
Monahan620131983
Galbraith L.520251994
Tupuknuk519951995
Nome420191993
Sourdough420001989
Goose Bay319761976
Unalakleet River320012001
Slana220071994
Maclaren220241982
Cantwell220011982
Cape Nome220191993
Salmon Lake220111993
Kenny Lake219961988
Petersville219871987
Cold Bay220241994
Cold Bay (Short)219911989
Chiniak120171987
Chistochina119941990

Red-necked Phalarope Population Trend in Other States

coloradowisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.