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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Solitary Sandpiper Population Trend in Alaska

All statesShorebirds

Solitary Sandpiper in Alaska has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+68%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Solitary Sandpiper Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Solitary Sandpiper has risen sharply in Alaska: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Solitary Sandpiper Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Solitary Sandpiper in Alaska is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Solitary Sandpiper in Alaska is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.000.71
20260.250.000.70
20270.250.000.70
20280.240.000.70
20290.240.000.69

Solitary Sandpiper Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Solitary Sandpiper in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tupuknuk1019951995
Kanuti Lake720242006
Gweek River620021994
Porcupine R.520021993
Unalakleet River420031996
Anvik River419981998
Elmendorf (Short)419841984
Eagle320222022
Chistochina319971990
Monahan320211991
Mccarthy Rd2320242015
Nicholai Sl320221993
Koyukuk Riv.320011998
Mud River320222011
Chena River319881988
Chena Hot Sp319901985
Kenny Lake320241989
Chatanika R220191992
Northway220021989
Kuskulana220241998
Cantwell220211982
Hather Creek220222005
Cottonwood219901987
Manley Ht Sp220222003
Mt. Fairplay220171993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.