BirdAnalyst
Guild · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Generalists In Arizona

All statesArizona

96 species in this guild. As a group they are -53%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have fallen sharply in Arizona, down 53% since 1970.

Generalists In Arizona Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Arizona is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.21–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Arizona is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.21–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.30.434.1
20262.20.384.0
20272.10.324.0
20282.10.273.9
20292.00.213.9

Member Species In Arizona

Generalists species in Arizona.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
LeConte's ThrasherMimidae-95%
Pinyon JayCorvidae-91%
Evening GrosbeakFringillidae-89%
Sagebrush SparrowPasserellidae-88%
Lazuli BuntingCardinalidae-87%
Western Screech-OwlStrigidae-86%
Sage ThrasherMimidae-85%
Bronzed CowbirdIcteridae-80%
Black-chinned SparrowPasserellidae-79%
Sharp-shinned HawkAccipitridae-79%
Cassin's FinchFringillidae-79%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-78%
Inca DoveColumbidae-78%
Brewer's SparrowPasserellidae-78%
Chihuahuan RavenCorvidae-78%
Rivoli's HummingbirdTrochilidae-76%
Northern Pygmy-OwlStrigidae-69%
Black-chinned HummingbirdTrochilidae-69%
Golden EagleAccipitridae-69%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae-68%
Elegant TrogonTrogonidae-68%
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-67%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-67%
Peregrine FalconFalconidae-64%
House SparrowPasseridae-64%
Common Ground DoveColumbidae-62%
Brewer's BlackbirdIcteridae-61%
Elf OwlStrigidae-60%
White-tailed KiteAccipitridae-57%
American Barn OwlTytonidae-57%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae-56%
American GoshawkAccipitridae-56%
Scott's OrioleIcteridae-50%
Blue-throated Mountain-gemTrochilidae-50%
Chihuahuan MeadowlarkIcteridae-43%
American CrowCorvidae-42%
European StarlingSturnidae-42%
American KestrelFalconidae-40%
Bendire's ThrasherMimidae-36%
Northern MockingbirdMimidae-33%
Montezuma QuailOdontophoridae-30%
House FinchFringillidae-29%
Cooper's HawkAccipitridae-26%
Zone-tailed HawkAccipitridae-25%
Mourning DoveColumbidae-24%
Canyon TowheePasserellidae-21%
BushtitAegithalidae-17%
Red CrossbillFringillidae-17%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae-15%
Mexican JayCorvidae-14%
Prairie FalconFalconidae-13%
White-winged DoveColumbidae-8%
Common RavenCorvidae-8%
Clark's NutcrackerCorvidae-4%
Hooded OrioleIcteridae-4%
Harris's HawkAccipitridae-3%
OspreyPandionidae-1%
Scaled QuailOdontophoridae+1%
Broad-tailed HummingbirdTrochilidae+1%
Great Horned OwlStrigidae+2%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae+13%
Varied BuntingCardinalidae+14%
Black VultureCathartidae+46%
Burrowing OwlStrigidae+52%
Steller's JayCorvidae+56%
Turkey VultureCathartidae+58%
Woodhouse's Scrub-JayCorvidae+62%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae+65%
Band-tailed PigeonColumbidae+80%
Black-headed GrosbeakCardinalidae+82%
Summer TanagerCardinalidae+93%
Pine SiskinFringillidae+95%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+99%
Red-tailed HawkAccipitridae+116%
Lesser GoldfinchFringillidae+130%
Song SparrowPasserellidae+131%
Hepatic TanagerCardinalidae+133%
Broad-billed HummingbirdTrochilidae+137%
Anna's HummingbirdTrochilidae+148%
Yellow-headed BlackbirdIcteridae+165%
Spotted TowheePasserellidae+166%
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae+171%
Bullock's OrioleIcteridae+175%
Costa's HummingbirdTrochilidae+200%
Yellow-eyed JuncoPasserellidae+209%
Rock PigeonColumbidae+211%
Botteri's SparrowPasserellidae+218%
Olive WarblerPeucedramidae+273%
Rufous-crowned SparrowPasserellidae+297%
Crissal ThrasherMimidae+401%
Green-tailed TowheePasserellidae+503%
Great-tailed GrackleIcteridae+518%
Swainson's HawkAccipitridae+616%
Gray HawkAccipitridae+653%
Eurasian Collared-DoveColumbidae+865%
Western TanagerCardinalidae16×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.