BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Crow Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

American Crow in Arizona has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-24%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Crow Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Crow in Arizona. See the full index history below.

American Crow Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, American Crow in Arizona is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±145.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Crow in Arizona is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.670.001.7
20270.670.001.7
20280.670.001.7
20290.660.001.7
20300.660.001.7

American Crow Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording American Crow in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alpine2720251992
Williams2320251999
Pinetop1320222003
Yampai1019731969
Round Rock619711968
Mormon Lake619751968
Greasewood620032003
Tsaile420172017
Sawmill320142005
Clay Spring320141990
Maine320241992
Skull Valley220091999
Sprucedale220251992
Tonto Vill.120102002
Flagstaff119921992
Happy Jack120221977
Blue119911975
Laguna119771977

American Crow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.