BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Finch Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

House Finch in Arizona has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Finch Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for House Finch in Arizona. See the full index history below.

House Finch Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Arizona is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 9.8–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.8–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Arizona is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 9.8–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251810.026
2026189.925
2027189.925
2028189.825
2029189.825

House Finch Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording House Finch in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Prescott13820221974
New River7520161974
Florence5919881968
Yampai5719771969
Cutter5520141992
Riviera4620241992
Peach Spring4120241992
Casa Grande4020231989
Organ Pipe4020231990
The Gap3819761968
Clay Spring3720241988
Black Mesa3419951988
Ajo 23420222009
Araby3320231992
Sahuarita3220241992
Cactus Forest3220241991
Amado3120231993
Wickenburg2620232017
Bartlett Res2520241992
Patagonia2320241968
Cutter 22120182015
Redington2020231993
Lukeville1919811975
Pinetop1920221993
Red Rock 21820242015

House Finch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.