BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Finch Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

House Finch in Arizona has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-36%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Finch Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for House Finch in Arizona. See the full index history below.

House Finch Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Arizona is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 9.1–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.1–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Arizona is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 9.1–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026179.325
2027179.325
2028179.225
2029179.125
2030179.125

House Finch Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording House Finch in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New River7520161974
Florence5919881968
Yampai5719771969
Cutter5520141992
Prescott4720251974
Cactus Forest4620251991
Casa Grande4020231989
Organ Pipe4020231990
Peach Spring3920251992
The Gap3819761968
Black Mesa3419951988
Ajo 23420222009
Araby3320231992
Riviera3020251992
Wickenburg2620232017
Sahuarita2220251992
Patagonia2120251968
Mcneal2120251992
Cutter 22120182015
Pomerene1920251968
Lukeville1919811975
Forest Lakes1920251994
Pinetop1920221993
Bartlett Res1920251992
Amado1920251993

House Finch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.